Evidence-based and factor-weighted probability of win
Capture-practice vocabulary for as a living aligned to — not a frozen CRM number.
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Evidence-based Pwin
Evidence-based Pwin is a living capture forecast that scores current customer, competitive, solution, price, , and evidence against the stated factors; records assumptions and owners; and updates when Section M, competitors, or gates change. Park Pwin beside and cost estimating: three different questions — can we win, what price position wins, what does performance cost. Conditional is acceptable only when cheap, fast evidence can retire named uncertainty — not as a way to postpone a .
Watch for
Don't treat Pwin as a sales promise, a quota, a number frozen at approval, or an average of CRM folklore and the capture lead's optimism. A system field is not objective by virtue of being stored.
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Factor-weighted Pwin
Factor-weighted Pwin scores current evidence against the stated factors and competitor positions in evaluation order, models dependencies so correlated assumptions are not double-counted, and lowers the forecast unless named actions can close gaps the will score. On a , customer access that improves information quality still does not erase an evaluated technical or a material price gap. Force the gate to either fund actions that change scored or accept a lower forecast.
Watch for
Don't claim relationship outweighs stated factors, paste a company-wide historical win rate onto this competition, count every favorable fact as independent when they share one assumption, or hold Pwin constant after material change for governance consistency.